PREVIEW: LASTCAR Championship Clinch Scenarios for Phoenix
TRUCK SERIES
Jack Wood enters the season finale with a one-finish lead in the 2021 LASTCAR Truck Series Championship. He can win the title by either (1) finishing last at Phoenix, or (2) by someone other than these seven drivers finishing in last place, subject to the following conditions:
For these five drivers:
#6-Norm Benning
#10-Jennifer Jo Cobb
#12-Tate Fogleman
#23-Chase Purdy
#04-Cory Roper
If they finish last at Phoenix, they win the title no matter where Wood finishes. Cobb would win by at least four Bottom Fives. Benning would win by at least three Bottom Fives. Fogleman would win by at least two Bottom Fives. Roper would win by at least two Bottom Tens. And even if Wood finished in the Bottom Five, Purdy would win by a Bottom Fifteen tiebreaker of 9-8.
For these two drivers:
#18-Chandler Smith
#26-Tyler Ankrum
If they finish last at Phoenix, they MAY win the title IF Wood does not finish in the Bottom Five. If Smith finishes last and Wood finishes in the Bottom Five, Wood wins on a Bottom Ten tiebreaker 7-6. If Ankrum finishes last and Wood finishes in the Bottom Five, Wood wins on a Bottom Five tiebreaker 4-3.
If Smith finishes last and Wood finishes in the Bottom Ten but not the Bottom Five, Smith wins a Bottom Five tiebreaker, 4-3. If Wood doesn’t finish in the Bottom Ten, Smith still wins on the Bottom Five tiebreaker, 4-3.
If Ankrum finishes last and Wood finishes in the Bottom Ten but not the Bottom Five,
Ankrum will win on a Bottom Fifteen tiebreaker, 10-8. If Wood doesn’t finish in the Bottom Ten, Ankrum will win the Bottom Ten tiebreaker, 7-6.
For this driver:
#40-Ryan Truex
If he finishes last, he will win the title ONLY IF Wood does not finish inside the Bottom Twenty. This would force a Bottom Twenty-Five tiebreaker with Wood, which Truex would win 14-9 (or 14-10 if Wood finishes in the Bottom Twenty-Five).
All other drivers are too far back to tie Wood with a last-place finish in Phoenix.
XFINITY SERIES
David Starr enters the season finale with a one-finish lead in the 2021 LASTCAR XFINITY Series championship. He can win the championship either (1) by finishing last at Phoenix, or (2) by anyone other than these three drivers finishing in last place:
For these three drivers:
#15-Bayley Currey
#19-Brandon Jones
#74-Gray Gaulding
If they finish last at Phoenix, they win the title no matter where Starr finishes. If Jones finishes last, he will win the title by at least one Bottom Five. If Gaulding finishes last, he will win the title by at least three Bottom Tens. And if Currey finishes last, he will win the title by at least five Bottom Tens UNLESS Starr also finishes in the Bottom Five, which would give Starr the title on a Bottom Five tiebreaker, 7-6.
All other drivers have been eliminated from contention.
CUP SERIES
Joey Gase enters the season finale after taking the lead with his third last-place finish of the year last week in Martinsville. He can win the championship either (1) by finishing last at Phoenix, or (2) by anyone other than these four drivers finishing in last place:
For these four drivers:
#1-Kurt Busch
#10-Aric Almirola
#47-Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
#77-Justin Haley
If they finish last at Phoenix, they win the title no matter where Gase finishes. Busch, Almirola, and Stenhouse would lead by a single last-place finish. Haley would win by at least one Bottom Five finish or five Bottom Tens.
All other drivers have been eliminated from contention.
